RECs Spotlight

Recent coup attempts in Madagascar (October 2025), Guinea-Bissau (November 2025), and Benin (December 2025) signal mounting pressure on civilian rule in Africa. While the continent has experienced a wave of successful military takeovers since 2020, the persistence of attempted coups in states with differing political trajectories underscores the fragility of constitutional governance. It equally reveals widening gaps in the norm-setting, enforcement, and preventive capacities of the African Governance architecture (AGA), particularly its normative framework against Unconstitutional Changes of Government (UCG), anchored in the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG). This policy brief examines coup attempts in Madagascar, Guinea-Bissau and Benin to identify emerging patterns, common drivers, contextual differences and their broader implications for the African Governance Architecture. It finds that while successful coups in Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau exploited significant political legitimacy gaps, the failed coup attempt in Benin reflects a range of factors, including the loyalty of the security forces to the civilian leadership, as well as a rapid response by state authorities in containing threats. It therefore argues that although Africa has witnessed an upsurge in coup attempts in recent years, such attempts do not inevitably succeed. The Benin case, in particular, offers important insights into preventive measures and rapid state response that could inform the efforts of the African Union and its member states to strengthen preventive diplomacy, reinforce civilian supremacy over the military and safeguard constitutional order in Africa.