The upcoming elections of the European Union is one of the most anticipated elections in recent years as the rise of right-wing populism in Europe has consequences beyond the continent. One of such areas of concern is Africa, particularly the Horn of Africa. To this end, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) Ethiopia and the Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) organized a breakfast meeting on June 6, 2024, at the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Addis Ababa to discuss the implications of this rightward shift among an audience that included researchers, diplomats and programme specialists. The European Union has a series of engagement with Africa and the African Union and as such there could be potential impacts on the EU-AU partnership in areas such as migration, violent extremism, and human rights. This was further reflected in the opening remarks of the event which highlighted the significance of these elections as being the first post-Brexit, and how the current socio-economic factors and the war in Ukraine have fostered a rise in right-wing populism.
Based on this, the breakfast meeting featured a panel of experts who delved into various aspects of the EU’s evolving political landscape and its potential ripple effects on African nations. Speakers emphasized that the EU’s policy shifts could alter the dynamics of international aid, trade agreements, and diplomatic relations. It was also noted that a stronger right-wing influence might lead to stricter immigration policies, potentially affecting African migrants and diaspora communities in Europe.
Based on this, the invited speakers provided key insights starting with an analysis of the upcoming EU elections by identifying the volatile situation and the potential for a right-wing coalition to shape EU policy choices. This was done by raising concerns about whether the EU will maintain collective decision-making strategy or shift towards renationalization of policies, and whether it will adopt a more closed “build a wall” or “Fortress Europe”-stance or continue its open-door policy. Secondly, there is a new development in the EU which advocates viewing multilateralism through a geopolitical lens, specifically in the preference for bilateral trade and the ongoing debates about European financial architecture considering right-wing shifts encamping current cooperation with African counterparts which involves key EU priorities like migration, maritime security, and combating violent extremism. Lastly, another dimension was identified which indicated the shifting EU stance towards Africa by using Sudan and Ethiopia as examples, which has opened the door for emerging influence of Middle Eastern powers like the UAE and Saudi Arabia in Africa, promoting a debate on the universality of democracy. Coming back to Africa, a lack of distinction between right-wing and far-right ideologies in Europe has led to questioning European ideals and multilateralism, exemplified by the Netherland’s reduction of humanitarian aid.
Outside of this, there were several questions put forward which involved Europe’s view of the Horn of Africa, Africa’s current geopolitical stance, and whether Europe is paying less attention to Africa amidst the rise of right-wing populism and the ongoing war in the Ukraine. In conclusion both FES and IPSS would like to thank the invited guests and attendees for joining us on our reflection of the uncertainties of the upcoming European elections and their potential impacts on Africa. As it was our intention to have a platform where experts and practitioners share their views and thoughts to enable those in the audience to have key takeaways for their respective institutions.