The annual APSA Impact Report is a flagship IPSS publication that assesses the impacts of intervention by the AU and RECs in the frame of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA). The 2018 edition of the report captures the efforts and challenges faced by the AU, RECs/RMs, and member states in their regional and continental efforts in conflict prevention, management, and transformation. Previous editions of the report have been presented to and received with keen interest by, a wide range of policy audiences including members of the AU Peace and Security Council, RECs, development partners, embassies, researchers, academics, and peace and security stakeholders.
This edition assesses 31 conflicts in Africa by using publicly available sources and a fit-for-purpose methodology to identify violent conflicts, map the interventions deployed in these conflicts, and assess the impact of these AU/REC engagements by measuring the quality and effectiveness of instruments used. In 2018, Africa continued to be home to a little more than a quarter of all conflicts worldwide. 27% of violent and non-violent conflicts recorded in the world took place in Africa. National power, system/ideology, subnational predominance, and resources were the most prominent conflict drivers on the continent, with system/ideology overtaking subnational predominance as a conflict driver for the first time.
The overall findings from the assessments conducted in 31 conflicts that attracted AU and/or REC interventions in 2018 show that the quality of intervention was of ‘overall high’ or ‘medium’ in 74% of conflicts assessed, presenting a decline from the 78% recorded in 2017. This continues the trend of a gradual deterioration in quality that started in 2017 following 86% recorded in 2016. As regards effectiveness, ‘overall successful’ and ‘partly successful’ interventions accounted for 58% of all interventions assessed, down from the 63% recorded in 2017, and 78% recorded in 2016. This shows that overall quality and effectiveness have continued to decline year by year since the favorable numbers are seen in 2016.